According to Polymarket data, there’s a 17% chance that Donald Trump, the leading Republican candidate for the presidency and advocate for cryptocurrency, will be incarcerated before the November elections due to his recent conviction in the prominent hush money trial.
Donald Trump Will Be In Jail Before Election, 17% Of Polymarket Voters Say
Initially launched in January, the market will confirm a “yes” outcome if Donald Trump spends over 48 hours behind bars before 11:59 p.m. on November 5th.
Presently, a single “yes” vote on the prediction platform costs 18 cents, while a “no” vote is priced at 85 cents.
As of Friday morning, the probability of Trump’s imprisonment before the specified date had surged by 57%.
The buzz around the market’s activity follows swiftly after Trump’s conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records in connection with his 2016 hush-money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.
During the high-profile trial, which spanned six weeks, several prominent figures associated with Trump testified, including his former lawyer Michael Cohen, former Oval Office Operations Director Madeleine Westerhout, and Daniels herself.
In response to the verdict, the former U.S. president decried the trial as a “disgrace” and labeled the presiding judge as “corrupt” and “conflicted.”
Meanwhile, seizing the opportunity to address voter concerns about supporting a convicted individual for the presidency, current U.S. President Joe Biden’s campaign emphasized the potential ramifications of a second Trump term, warning of chaos, erosion of freedoms, and political unrest.
Will Joe Biden See a Second Term In The White House?
Recent polls indicate that Biden and Trump are in a tight race for the White House, with a May 30 Marist Poll showing Biden narrowly edging out Trump by a mere 2%.
Trump has been notably supportive of cryptocurrencies leading up to the election, even going as far as to accept campaign contributions in digital assets.
In contrast, Biden has leaned towards advocating for increased regulation in the blockchain sector. However, Trump’s pro-crypto stance may pressure Biden to reconsider his position.
The sentencing of Trump by Judge Juan Merchan is scheduled for July 11, although the severity of his punishment remains uncertain.
The conduct of convicts during their trials often influences the leniency of their sentences. Trump’s repeated violation of a gag order imposed by Merchan in recent weeks may not fare well for him legally.