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JPMorgan Warns of Further Bitcoin Decline Despite Recent Correction

Bitcoin has undergone a decline of more than 10% from its peak, as the demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) appears to be easing, as reported by Bloomberg on Friday. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase and Co. have cautioned that this downturn may continue, suggesting further potential decline.

The group of 10 spot Bitcoin ETFs recently experienced its most significant outflow in four days since their introduction on January 11.

Simultaneously, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is facing one of its toughest weeks this year, with a 4% decline.

As of the latest update, BTC is trading at approximately $65,400.

Bitcoin is Still Overbought

JPMorgan strategists have reiterated their view that Bitcoin appears to be overbought, echoing a forecast made back in February that further declines could materialize in the lead-up to the eagerly awaited halving event in April.

This event is poised to reduce the supply of newly minted BTC from miners.

The consistent open interest in CME Bitcoin futures, alongside decreasing ETF flows, are interpreted as notable bearish indicators for Bitcoin’s price, as per the analysis from JPMorgan strategists, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.

“The rate of net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs has noticeably slowed, with the past week witnessing a significant outflow. This challenges the perception that the spot Bitcoin ETF flow trend will remain consistently one-way net inflow,” they remarked in a note released on Thursday.

“As we approach the halving event, this profit-taking is expected to persist, especially given the current positioning, which still appears overbought despite the correction observed in the past week.”

Last month, JPMorgan foresaw a gradual decline in BTC price towards $42,000 post-April, as the excitement surrounding the Bitcoin halving diminishes.

Although BTC soared to a record high of nearly $73,798 on March 14, retail trader enthusiasm may be diminishing, noted Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets.

“The lack of a significant rally from the all-time high has led many to question the strength of the surge,” remarked Aslam.

“With the halving approaching, if the event fails to sustain momentum, it could trigger a substantial retracement, potentially pushing the price below $50,000.”

Despite Recent Bitcoin Decline, Bernstein Expects Surge to $90,000

Despite the recent downturn in Bitcoin prices, investment firm Bernstein has increased its year-end forecast for the cryptocurrency. According to a research note, Bernstein has adjusted its price target for Bitcoin to $90,000, up from the previous estimate of $80,000. The firm also expressed optimism regarding cryptocurrency mining stocks, pointing to Bitcoin’s recent surge to approximately $74,000 and the positive reception of new spot BTC ETFs.

Analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra from Bernstein outlined several factors contributing to their bullish outlook. They highlighted the beginning of a new BTC bull cycle, significant inflows into ETFs, the rapid expansion of miner capacity, and record-breaking revenues for miners. These factors collectively position Bitcoin miners as an appealing investment opportunity for equity investors seeking exposure to the cryptocurrency market.

Furthermore, Bernstein has adjusted its forecast for the upcoming halving event in April.

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