Renowned macro expert and cryptocurrency veteran Lyn Alden holds the view that a $100,000 peak for Bitcoin (BTC) in the upcoming bull market would be a somewhat lackluster result for the current bullish cycle. Alden discussed her insights into Bitcoin’s future price movement in a recent interview on the What Bitcoin Did podcast.
She underscored the significance of the relationship between global liquidity and Bitcoin’s market cycles, asserting that the ebb and flow of liquidity serves as a dependable indicator of Bitcoin’s performance. Despite this, she acknowledged that this correlation doesn’t offer a clear indication of the potential highs or lows for Bitcoin’s price.
Although liquidity provides a sense of direction, gauging the extent of price fluctuations remains a complex task. Alden proposes that conventional models such as stock-to-flow, which offer precise price forecasts at specific dates, might not be as suitable for Bitcoin’s unique characteristics.
According to Alden, Bitcoin exhibits a strong correlation with liquidity in terms of directional movement. However, she emphasizes that using this correlation to predict specific price levels is challenging. Unlike stock-to-flow models, where one can stipulate a particular price at a given date, Bitcoin’s dynamics don’t align with such straightforward predictions. As Alden puts it, “It’s not really useful for magnitude, so it’s not one of those stock-to-flow models where you can say, ‘Okay, at this date it should be this price.’”
Lyn Alden Expects Liquidity to Improve in 2024, 2025
Alden anticipates a favorable trajectory for liquidity in the years 2024 and 2025, which could potentially be advantageous for risk-on assets like Bitcoin. Envisioning a scenario where Bitcoin undergoes a rally of around 340% from its current price levels by the conclusion of 2025, she expresses optimism.
In her own words, “My base-case expectation is for new all-time highs, hopefully over $100,000, so hopefully six figures. But then literally that range… that range is entirely reasonable. I’d actually be hesitant to guess where that ends up.”
Alden conveys that a figure like $100,000 would be somewhat disappointing for a bull market cycle, especially considering the previous cycle ended on a similarly disappointing note. She expresses her hope for Bitcoin to reach $200,000 or more in the next two-plus years.
As of the current writing, Bitcoin is valued at $45,200, reflecting a nearly 1% decrease over the past day.
Analyst Expects Bitcoin to Hit $1 Million After ETF Approval
Samson Mow, the CEO of Jan3, holds the belief that Bitcoin possesses the potential to surge to $1 million in just a matter of days to weeks following the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF. According to Mow, this rapid escalation in price would be driven by a confluence of factors, including the restricted supply of Bitcoin on exchanges and a substantial influx of institutional investments.
In expressing his perspective, Mow emphasized, “You’re hitting a very limited supply of Bitcoin on the exchanges and available for purchase with a torrent of money.” The combination of these factors, in his view, would propel the price of Bitcoin to unprecedented levels within an exceptionally short timeframe.
“This is why you can go really high all at one time,” Mow emphasized. He pointed out the anticipated influx of institutional capital that would accompany the approval of a spot ETF, noting that a significant volume of money would be vying to acquire the limited amount of available Bitcoin on exchanges. The intersection of heightened demand and the scarcity of supply creates a scenario where a rapid and substantial increase in price becomes feasible.
