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Bitcoin ETF in Q1 and Bitcoin Price All-Time High in Q4: VanEck Predictions 2024

VanEck, a leading investment management company, has unveiled a series of 15 forecasts for the cryptocurrency landscape in 2024, shedding light on potential major advancements in the digital asset realm.

The comprehensive report presents an in-depth perspective, emphasizing key prognostications such as the expected introduction of the inaugural U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the first quarter and a foreseen peak in Bitcoin prices during the fourth quarter. Additionally, the report anticipates a surge in non-fungible token (NFT) activities and suggests a potential change in Binance’s dominance in spot trading.

Bitcoin ETFs and Historical High Price

VanEck envisions the debut of the first U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, coinciding with an anticipated U.S. economic downturn. The firm forecasts substantial capital influx into these ETFs, surpassing $2.4 billion in the initial quarter, potentially providing a stabilizing effect on Bitcoin prices, expected to remain above $30,000.

Referencing historical parallels with the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF, VanEck estimates an initial inflow of approximately $1 billion shortly after the ETFs’ launch, with this figure escalating to $2.4 billion within a single quarter. Over the initial two years, they anticipate a surge in inflows amounting to $40.4 billion. This surge is attributed to Bitcoin’s appeal as an alternative to traditional hard assets and a reduction in transaction costs compared to prevailing retail trading fees, exemplified by Coinbase’s transaction fee hovering around 2.5%.

Furthermore, VanEck foresees a noteworthy uptick in Bitcoin’s value in late 2024. The prediction indicates that Bitcoin will achieve an all-time high on November 9, driven by political shifts, specifically pointing to the potential election of Donald Trump as a catalyst for a more favorable regulatory environment in the U.S. This projection aligns with historical trends, noting Bitcoin’s price peaks occurring at three-year intervals, as observed in 2017 and 2020.

NFT Market Regains Volume

The NFT market is poised for a substantial resurgence, with expectations of monthly sales volumes reaching unprecedented highs. This revival is attributed to a renewed interest in cryptocurrencies, particularly focusing on prominent NFT collections on the Ethereum blockchain, advancements in crypto games, and the emergence of innovative Bitcoin-based NFTs.

The anticipated introduction of Bitcoin’s Ordinals protocol and the ongoing development of Bitcoin’s layer 2 chains are foreseen to breathe new life into Bitcoin network fees, leading to a transformation in the dynamics of the NFT market. Consequently, the longstanding dominance of Ethereum in primary NFT sales, traditionally at a nearly 50-1 ratio compared to Bitcoin, is projected to significantly narrow. By the end of 2024, the forecast suggests a ratio closer to 3-1, reflecting a substantial shift in the NFT market landscape.

Binance to Descend, More to Rise

In 2024, a significant reshuffling of the centralized cryptocurrency exchange rankings is anticipated, with Binance poised to relinquish its top position following a $4 billion settlement with U.S. regulators. This development opens the door for emerging competitors such as OKX, Bybit, Coinbase, and Bitget to contend for the leading position. Notably, Coinbase’s international futures market is expected to undergo a substantial increase in daily trading volumes, signaling its potential ascent in the competitive landscape.

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Cryptocurrency is essentially virtual money that operates in a decentralized manner, not through a bank but directly on multiple independent computers.

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